McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS64 KFWD 300838
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
338 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and storms will continue to develop along a
  cold front this morning. A few storms may contain damaging
  winds and hail.

- Following a dry Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm chances return
  Saturday night into Sunday, with frequent storm chances from
  Monday through the rest of next week. Some storms could be
  strong or possibly severe, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 140 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025/
/Today through Tonight/

Radar this morning shows widespread showers and thunderstorms have
developed across much of North Texas and western Central Texas in
association with a passing H5 shortwave trough and associated
weak surface cold front. This activity will continue southeastward
through 14-15Z or so before exiting off to the east. As we have
seen already early this morning, a storm or two could briefly
become severe with a hail and wind threat. However, most of the
activity will remain sub-severe. Once the storm activity exits, a
cooler and dry Friday is anticipated with highs only in the upper
70s to low 80s. Tonight looks quite nice for late May thanks to
the somewhat cooler and drier airmass behind the front, with lows
mostly in the 60s.

Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Onward/

While the weekend will start off quiet as the region becomes
planted on the back edge of the eastern CONUS longwave trough,
unsettled weather will return by Sunday morning and linger
through much of next week. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s and
90s, with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

With our location on the western periphery of the trough,
northwest flow aloft will become established across the Plains by
Saturday. Down at the surface, southerly flow will gradually
return across Texas as the post-frontal surface high moves into
South Texas and Louisiana, allowing for a bit of moisture return.
A small mid-level disturbance will be trekking south along the
back of the trough over the day Saturday, which sets up a perfect
NW-SE MCS scenario for the region during the overnight hours into
Sunday morning. Model guidance is in better alignment with the
nocturnal MCS, with all ensemble members showing precipitation
chances in North and Central Texas late Saturday night through
much of the first half of Sunday, and have increased PoPs from the
previous forecast as a result. There is still uncertainty on
exact locations so will keep 20-30% PoPs for now until more high-
resolution model guidance covers this period. The threat of
severe weather is also uncertain as forecast soundings show
meager instability during this time, but moderate deep layer
shear around 40-45 kts.

In the wake of the departing shortwave, mid-level ridging will
build in across the Southern Plains to start the week. The ridge
will quickly be shunted east as a cut off low in Baja California
becomes enmeshed within a digging western CONUS trough and ejects
to the northeast. The quick pattern change will bring unsettled
weather next week as multiple shortwaves track across the region.
Storms are expected to develop both along a sharpening dryline in
West Texas and across the Big Country, and track east each day
through the end of the long term period. There will be enough
shear and instability for severe weather each day, with the threat
highest on Tuesday and Wednesday when a cold front sags south
into North Texas. Exact locations and threats are still uncertain
this far out, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast this
weekend and next week as additional details come.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 140 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

Difficult TAFs this forecast period due to scattered SHRA/TSRA
early this morning with predominate VFR/MVFR conditions but tempo
IFR between 06-09Z. All SHRA/TSRA expected to move out by 09-10Z
but MVFR cigs will continue through 14Z at Metroplex airports, and
17Z at KACT, before improving back to VFR. North winds 5-10 knots
are anticipated through the TAF period.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  86  68  86 /  20   0   0  20  30
Waco                80  62  84  67  88 /  20   5   5   5  30
Paris               79  58  82  65  82 /  10   0   0  20  20
Denton              79  59  85  65  86 /  20   0   0  30  30
McKinney            79  60  84  65  84 /  20   0   0  20  30
Dallas              80  64  86  68  87 /  20   0   0  20  30
Terrell             79  60  85  65  85 /  20   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           81  63  85  67  87 /  20   5   0   5  30
Temple              81  64  85  67  90 /  30   5   5   5  20
Mineral Wells       79  61  87  66  89 /  20   5   5  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$